Wizard Of Odds Blackjack 2 Deck
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Rules:
Single Deck
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Dealer does not peek for BJ. All bets lost for dealer BJ
No double after split
Only split once
No surrender
Player may draw to split aces
What I am looking for is something like on the Wizard of Odds site under /games/blackjack/appendix/5/) however, the rules based in that chart do not reflect the specifics of the game I am looking for.
I play a lot of single-deck to those rules and would like to be able to asses how 'fair' my results are.
Many thanks in advance!
With the rules you've given, assuming the game is 3:2 for blackjack, I'm showing a House Edge of about .10%. A really good game rule wise, but the penetration and the heat would be what I'd worry most about if you're looking to count at this game. Also, if it's online, lol. =)
Next, if you're looking for a specific card to card and hand breakdown of expected return very similar to Appendix 5, I'd imagine that would take someone a bit more work to produce. Also, while the percentages are in no way 'exact'.. 'most' of those percentages won't change that much from Appendix 5 (some will due to the DAS, etc, but not a mountain of a change all the same). Perhaps PM to the Wizard requesting said information, as I'm not sure how he programmed it and it may or may not be easy for him to change rules and provide an additional result with your rule set.
I have seen the edge calculator, I thought about using an overall percentage to work out fairness of my results, but unfortunately due to fluctuations in staking, I do not believe I could make this work accurately, for example, playing £100,000 worth of single deck, may show a profit (thus above expectation) but this could be down to pure luck in staking alterations between times of playing. If that makes sense!
What I want to do is assess each time I play, and I can record each particular game through automation, and then establish whether or not after each session, how fair were the results. Obviously the aim would be to combine with multiple sessions to garner the greater picture, regardless of P&L.
E.G, I was dealt XX. Dealer has X. Therefore upon expectation of perfect strategy play from this point, I should win Y%.
The link I tried to post (but I am not allowed) is the wizardofodds URL, followed by /games/blackjack/appendix/5
How do i message the Wizard himself?
TIA
OriginalSD = 1.15*10 = 11.5
EV(50k hands) = (10*50,000)*(-.001) = -$500
SD(50k hands) = Sqrt(50,000) * 11.5 = $2571.48.. 2SD = $5,142.97.. 3SD = $7,714.44
So you could still be up ~$7200 after 50k hands due to natural variance. In order to prove you're down (since it's such a low HE game) you're going to have to play a lot more hands.
EV(200k hands) = (10*200,000)*(-.001) = -$2,000
SD(200k hands) = Sqrt(200,000) * 11.5 = $5,142.96.. 2SD = $10,285.91.. 3SD = $15,428.88
While it's true you would get your answers quicker via exact hand comparisons and expected returns, you'd still have to blast through hundreds of thousands of hands either way.. This isn't something I'd recommend checking on, as you surely could put that amount of hours in to something more productive in either gambling/AP or even with your life. I'd just put out a thread with your individual results to the named site and say while you don't have proof you feel the game is not the return they show. Then move on with your life to the next thing.
You can PM anyone by clicking their name in a thread and clicking 'New Message' on their profile.
Yes, it is more about assessing the fairness of the results over a long period of time. Playing 100s of thousands of hands is not a problem in terms of time or productivity for me, nor is expediting the automation of recording each hand and then therefore recording the data. I just need the expected return per hand, ideally.
I am interested to hear your take on using the SD, i suppose as a basic approach this could work. Although, as mentioned I would like more accuracy, because stakes can vary from anywhere around the £40quid to the £200 mark. Again, a significant range. Would you say this would affect the results significantly the way you calculate it above?
Thanks
I'll still say again, I don't think this is worth the negative EV to find out. Hell ,with an average flat bet I showed above you could be within 3SD and still be down $20k.. Thus you could lose $20k and not have proven anything. There's a lot more you can do with your time and money!
https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/casino-bar/
Romes is totally right, and you can't really prove anything based on just your 'results' unless you play billions of hands. You might show a huge loss and it can be explained by variance, it's not worth it. But from the study I assume you can gauge whether a game is fair or not without playing that much, by looking at specific occurrences. It is beyond my statistical expertise and I believe it would take some effort.
If you want to do that, all the power to you!
I suppose recording individually and taking 'snap' samples could work over a long time to see how we get on (looking at the methods of the Wizard on that link r.e the Casino Bar Blackjack,
I think the blackjack hand calculator on the site can give me what I need for now - if I set the parameters to the specific game it does tell me what the probabilities are per hand each time.
I appreciate all your guys time and ideas on this subject
In a hand where a split is the optimum play, I have an expectation. Let us say I pull A,A vs Dealer 10 and I split them.
According to the calculator the Expectation is +0.104690.
However, what facets is this probability derived from? Especially, let us say in the situation, whereby I win one hand and lose on the other, meaning net position is no gain or no loss. If recording the outcomes this way in attempt to find fair results, would you write this as 1 win and 1 loss? Or as 1 push?
Similarly, if you won one hand and pushed another. Again, net position is a gain, but not by the expected amount (because you are expected to win both hands), so would you record as 1 win and 1 push? But the win is not a full win, if you get my jist.
Am i trying to establish how the Expectation of +0.104690 covers this possibilities..
Many thanks in advance
I've never played a shoe game. I only played pitch blackjack (5 buy-ins last Oct 2016, 2 buy-ins Apr 2017). I had small but positive returns on both occasions. My first time to successfully card-count was this past Apr 2017.
Wizard Of Odds Blackjack 2 Deck
http://wizardofvegas.com/member/lostwages/blog/#post1540On my 3rd trip (maybe end of 2017 or early 2018), I'm thinking to myself that I should try a shoe game AT LEAST ONCE. FYI, I plan to return to stay and play at MSS, not the Cal. In between blackjack, I will go for the scratchers at the Boar's Head Bar or nearby alcoves that have 10/7 DB with 100.62% ER after factoring in 9 more coins when you get a quad.
After trying the shoe game, if I don't like it, I'll revert to pitch blackjack,
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However, whether or not I'll like the shoe game, I have already planned to revise my bankroll and betting strategy so that I'm not underfunded, and have enough BR to cover double downs and positive TC counts >=3.
Wizard Of Odds Blackjack
AFTER I'm sure I know the differences between 2-deck and 6-deck blackjack, I'll work on this strategy. Thanks to all the tips from WoV members, I've now compiled what I think is a usable table comparing 2-deck and 6-deck blackjack. I'm trying to plan my 'attack' months before my trip, so that I will act as natural as possible and not attract attention.
My questions are:
1. Did I miss any elements to compare for 2-deck vs 6-deck blackjack? Again, I've never played 6-deck blackjack, so I might easily have misinterpreted tips and suggestions I've been reading on the WoV forum.
2. Any GENERAL guidelines to planning my bankroll? I am a low-roller, and my BR will be under $1,000 for 3 or 4 playing days.
3. If possible, I prefer to play head-to-head early in the mornings, at least until I'm really comfortable card-counting. I understand this means I'd have to play through negative TCs, but is there anything I might be overlooking?
Comparing | 2-deck Blackjack (pitch) | 6-deck Blackjack (shoe) |
---|---|---|
Bankroll | still figuring out, suggestions welcomed! | still figuring out, suggestions welcomed! |
Bets | Rapidly change, but doesn't last long | Slowly change, but you'll have more rounds to continue with ramped up bet |
Cards, number of | 104 | 312 |
Card-counting | Count hole cards when flipped over, and hit cards that come out on the felt. | Start counting when players get their 2nd card, and use cancellation principle. |
Count fluctuation | Frequently and rapidly goes up and down; new shuffle comes quickly before you can make more than 2-3 ramped up bets. | Changes more gradually, but you get more than 2-3 rounds to continue with ramped up bets. |
Dealing | First card is dealt face down, succeeding cards face up. Player can only hold cards with one hand | Cards are dealt face up. Player MAY NOT touch cards. |
Double-down (non-Ace pairs can be split up to 4x) | more likely to win | less likely to win |
HE (WoV Survey) | .60225 | .78327 |
Max TC + (Hi/Lo) | 30.075 | 52.174 |
Min/Max | $5/$1,000 | $5/$500 |
Playing time (faster if fewer players) | 15-20 min for 3-4 shuffles, approximating dealer's shift time at Cal & MSS | At 10-15 min per shoe, the pace is faster than pitch BJ. I've not played a shoe game, but I estimate 1-2 shoes/20 min dealer shift. |
- You're reading a bit too much in to it. While yes, you must understand the differences between 2D and 6D, if you have a winning game with Hi/Low you can play either. The biggest differences you're looking at from your perspective (downtown DD) is nDAS I believe. That hurts the player to the point where it's no longer <.5% and it actually changes the strategy a bit too.
- Hi/Low is actually going to perform better on 6D and 8D than compared to 1D and 2D. For the lower number decks, if you're going to specialize in just those, then there are other counts that more specialize with the shorter number of decks.
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- 1D and 2D are going to come with a lot more heat whenever you get to a point where you have a spread that can make any kind of decent money (even $10-$20/hour). Especially in vegas, and downtown, just messing around with my younger brother and betting $5-$60 I've been shuffled on. Even with a $5-$60 spread on those crappy games (nDAS) that still only comes out to like $5/hour EV. So you could imagine how you'd have to either spread a ton more, up your base bet, or find a better game to get your EV up to something where you could make any kind of okay money.- Card fluctuation is a bit misleading as well. The fewer number of decks the more each card has an impact on the TC, yes. However, I've sat down at 6D games, and raised my bet after the first round, raised it again after the 2nd round, maxed at the 3rd round and kept it at max bet for half the shoe. The cards don't always come out evenly, which is a good thing for counters, so it doesn't always 'gradually' go up and down (just like it doesn't in DD). From my experiences, DD is good for hit and run because of the fluctuations, where as 6D is better for getting a lot more big bets out in a good shoe. You might see them a bit less frequently, but you'll also have good TC's to bet in for a lot longer than crapy PEN DD games. I'd think in your situation you'd rather be able to play for a while than to play for 5 min, show your max bet at a DD game, then have to decide whether to leave or take a chance getting backed off at one of your favorite places. At 6D games you can sit around for a while and 'camp out' more with a lot less heat. Aka You'd get better comps playing 6D as well.
- Your 'less likely to win' double-down statement is a bit misleading. The reason the shorter number of decks are 'more likely' is due to the concentration of the cards. This is why we use a true count, but when there's a ton of decks left there's a bit more room for variance. Yes, that's a bit of a word salad, so let's look at examples..
1) Let's pretend you have 11 (8-3), the dealer has a neutral card, and you're doubling down at a 2D and a 6D game just after the shuffle..
2D.. What are your odds of getting 21? Well, there are 32 face cards out of the remaining 101 cards (your 2 and dealer up card). Your odds of getting a 21 at this point would be 32/101 = 31.6832%
6D.. What are your odds of getting 21? Well, there are 96 face cards out of the remaining 309 cards. Your odds of getting 21 at this point would be 96/309 = 31.068%.
So while you 'technically' are 'more likely to win' with the DD double down, the difference is about half a percent (.5%). In 'general' saying you have about a 31% to win your double on either game is an accurate statement. Thus, I think to have an entire category to stating you're more likely to win on DD and less likely on 6D is vastly misleading to your train of thought, while technically correct.
The best way to compare the games is going to be:
Comparing | 2D Blackjack | 6D Blackjack |
---|---|---|
Heat | A lot more heat generally. Any spread with decent money you won't play too long, nor get comps/offers after being backed off. | A lot less heat generally. Can get away with decent spreads that earns some okay EV, stacking on better comps/offers. |
Penetration | Usually pretty bad. Especially downtown, you get 50% most places, maybe up to 60%. | Standard PEN last I checked downtown (1.5/6 = 75%). Even on the strip there are 3:2 lower limit ($10 or $15) several places that cut 1D on 6D (83%). |
House Edge | Downtown games aren't very good.. 3/2 H17 DD, SP4, nDAS = .6% HE | Even with 3/2 H17 SP4 DAS = .63% HE, if you're going off strip you can find plenty of places with better low limit rules. So the big difference here is .03%, which is negligible for your situation. |
Double Deck Blackjack Game
You're looking at a lot of categories where, yes they're good to 'know,' they should be really erroneous to your decision on what to play. You should be looking for the lowest heat, best PEN, best rules (in that order in my opinion). To reiterate again too, if you're going to use Hi/Low it actually performs better at 6 and 8 deck games than 1 and 2 deck games. There are old threads on here and definitely a lot of threads on other forums (that like to compare counting systems a lot - hint hint) that you can read up on why.
If you love 2D games, and that's what you want to play, then do it. But if you use Hi/Low you'll lose a tiny bit of your edge, and you'll eventually come in to a lot more heat when you start betting any kind of decent action that could earn you even $5-$10 per hour (at least downtown).
EDIT: Both games have their purpose and merits. If you're only going to be in town once per year and for a couple days, then perhaps burning up the DD's at the places you're not staying isn't too bad an idea, even if you lose a slight bit of edge from counting 2D with Hi/Low. In the end it's what you want to do, but I don't think you've ever even played a 6D game, correct? When you get backed off from your first DD game, play an even bigger spread at a 6D game and watch how no one seems to care/notice. Then realize you're getting better comps/offers too as you'll be able to play longer and 'camp out' a bit more to get more hours/hands in.