Poker Strategy Risk Of Ruin
Risk of ruin is something all gamblers must face when determining their bankroll size. All video poker games have a variance, even those that give the player an advantage. You learned that the number of plays in a multiple play game and the size of the progressive jackpot influence the size of. Apr 01, 2009 One can never eliminate the risk of going broke, that is reducing the risk of ruin to 0%. Whilst 5% might be acceptable to a part time player, a professional whose only source of income is from poker should use something like a conservative 1% risk of ruin.
In video poker, bankroll requirements matter. Risk of ruin is also a factor, but only if you’re an advantage player. This page explains what bankroll management is, what risk of ruin means, and what the different kinds of video poker players are. It also examines what kind of bankroll you might need based on what kind of video poker player you are.
What’s a Bankroll?
Risk Of Ruin Calculator Poker
When gamblers refer to their bankrolls, they’re talking about the amount of money they have set aside to gamble with. Their bankroll is the amount of money they can afford to lose.
Risk of Ruin. With regard to poker, the risk of ruin is the probability of losing a given bankroll because of these short term swings. It is small when the bankroll is large since a long streak of bad luck is required to drain a large bankroll completely, and the probability of such a streak occurring drops off rapidly as its length increases. Finding the proper amount to risk and sticking to it will help you do that—it’ll help you maintain the attitude that every decision matters. Note: Want to turn your poker hobby into a profitable side job? Start crushing your competition with the expert strategies you’ll learn inside Upswing Lab. Learn more now!
Risk of Ruin The probability that, given a certain bankroll, a gambler will be ruined. For video poker, the Risk of Ruin is generally computed for an infinite number of hands, since the computation easier, though it can also be computed for any number of hands. The calc tracks various long term play stats including percent of hands correct, average house edge increase from strategy errors, and hands per minute. Hands per minute is computed from the time between when 'Next Hand' is clicked to display the new hand and the time when 'Draw Cards' is clicked.
Blackjack Risk Of Ruin
How you handle that bankroll is called “bankroll management.” Some aspects of bankroll management apply to all gamblers, including video poker players, while others only apply to video poker players who play with an edge against the house.
Here’s an example of a bankroll management strategy that applies to all gamblers, including video poker players of all types:
You should only gamble with money you can afford to lose. In other words, your video poker bankroll should be separate from the rest of your money. If you need that money to buy groceries or pay the rent, it shouldn’t be part of your gambling bankroll.
Some people use win goals and stop loss limits as part of their video poker bankroll management approach. These aren’t necessary, and they don’t affect your odds of winning. But the concepts can be useful.
A win goal is an amount of money that, once won, signals that it’s time to quit for that session or that gambling trip. For example, if I have a bankroll of $1000, and I set a win goal of $100, I’ll quit playing when my bankroll increases to $1100 via winnings.
A stop loss limit is the same thing, only applied to losing money. If I had a $1000 bankroll with a stop loss limit of $100, I’d quit playing when my bankroll hit $900.
Bankroll management proponents imply that this approach improves your chances of winning. They don’t, though, because quitting at an arbitrary point doesn’t matter to the probabilities. The math doesn’t care if you quit one day and start again the next. As far as the math behind the game works, you’re playing one lifelong session, regardless of how many breaks you take during that session.
What Is Risk of Ruin?
In some situations, a gambler has a mathematical edge over the casino. This edge is usually small, though, and you can’t rely on seeing this edge until you’ve spent a significant amount of time playing. The mathematical edge is a long term expectation. Anything can happen in the short run.
This is how the casinos stay in business, by the way. They rely on having a tiny edge over you, but they understand that in the short run, sometimes you’ll win. If you didn’t sometimes walk away a winner, you wouldn’t play.
Since anything can happen in the short term, you can go broke, even if the odds are in your favor. Risk of ruin measures the likelihood of that happening.
Video Poker Strategy
Generally, the smaller your bankroll is in relation to your average bet size, the greater your risk of ruin is. For example, someone with a $1000 bankroll who’s playing a quarter machine is betting $1.25 per hand (5 coins). That’s 800 units.
Someone with a $500 bankroll only has 400 units in that situation.
The person with the $500 bankroll clearly has a greater probability of going broke before his tiny edge kicks in.
The other factors that determine risk of ruin in video poker include the size of your edge and the volatility of the game.
Most video poker players are playing with a mathematical disadvantage to the casino. Their risk of ruin is 100%. They might walk away a winner in the short run, but they’re not risking going broke before their edge kicks in. They don’t have an edge to wait for.
Even skilled video poker players who find the best games only get an edge of 0.2% or 0.3% versus the casino. Part of this edge comes from getting a royal flush once every 40,000 hands, too. Since you’re playing 600 hands per hour, it might take 70 hours or more to see one of those hands.
Bankroll Requirements for Recreational VP Players
When it comes to deciding how big your bankroll needs to be if you’re just playing video poker for fun, the only consideration is how much fun you’re having and how long you want to play. If you’re planning to play video poker 8 hours a day 5 days in a row, you’re getting in 40 hours of play.
That’s about 24,000 hands of video poker.
If you’re playing 25 cent machines at $1.25 per hand, you’re putting $30,000 into action over those 40 hours.
But that doesn’t mean you need a bankroll of $30,000 to play for that long. You’d only need that much money if you were losing every hand.
Assuming the house has an edge of 3%, you’d need about $900 to play for that long. If you run into some bad luck, you might run out of money early, so double that and bring $1800 to play with.
But if you play a game where the house has an edge long enough, you will eventually lose all your money. That’s just how those games work.
Bankroll Requirements for Advantage Players
To decide on how big a bankroll you’ll need if you have an edge, you need to analyze how much of a risk of ruin you’re comfortable with. Do you want a next to 0 risk of ruin, like 1%? If so, bring a lot of money to the machines.
On the other hand, if you’re comfortable with a 50% risk of ruin, you can take a shot with a much smaller bankroll.
How much is that in terms of units?
Online casino games free play. You probably have a 50% risk of ruin if you bring 1000 units with you. Increase that to 7000 units, and your risk of ruin drops to about 1%.
On a quarter machine, that’s the difference between bringing $1250 to the game and bringing $8750 with you.